If AA attacks Kyaukphyu, how would China respond?

Kyaing Hein Lin, Narinjara News, 23 August 2024

In Arakan State, there are still five towns where the Arakan Army (AA) may launch offensives and those include Kyaukphyu, which hosts a number of Chinese projects.

Kyaukphyu has a multi-billion-dollar oil & gas pipeline project, an ongoing deep-sea port and a special economic zone.

During the appointment ceremony of the new Chinese ambassador to Myanmar (Ms Ma Jia) on 21 August, the junta chief senior general Min Aung Hlaing promised to protect the safety and security of Chinese projects along with the employees. 

By now, the AA controls most of Kyaukphyu Township, except Dhanyawadi naval base and Maday island, where the oil & gas project is located.

Narinjara News reached out to China-Myanmar specialist Dr Hla Kyaw Zaw to understand Beijing’s probable response if the AA attack and occupy Kyaukphyu.

“It is noteworthy that both  Indian and Chinese investments remain in Arakan State. The AA fighters will act strategically and intelligently so that foreign investments are not affected. So there is no immediate cause to worry,” said Dr Hla Kyaw Zaw.

“The AA has already clarified that their actions would not disturb foreign investments. AA assured both Beijing and New Delhi about it,” she added.

According to an AA statement on 25 May, United League of Arakan is committed to prioritizing the interest of locals and regional development. They welcome investors who are genuinely dedicated to the development of the Arakan region.

“We are committed to ensure the safety of investments, projects and investors. We also look forward to the future course of actions,” said the AA statement.

 An AA statement on 7 July stated that various crucial enemy bases, including the western command in Ann, military operations command (MOC-5) in Taungup, regional operations commands (ROC) in Sittwe and Dhanyawadi naval base in Kyaukphyu, have been blocked. The AA fighters have also launched offensives against these bases.

They have already captured Buthidaung, Rathedaung, Ponnagyun, Pauktaw, Kyauktaw, Mrauk-U, Minbya, Myebon and Ramree in Arakan State, as well as Paletwa township of  Chin State.

The AA continue the offensive to fully capture Thandwe and Maungdaw towns. They have already occupied Kyeintali under Gwa township and  southernmost part of Arakan near the Ayeyarwady region. Currently they are advancing towards Gwa town.

Many political analysts believe that the AA fighters may launch an offensive against the Kyaukphyu urban area soon.

On 14 August, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar and discussed with junta chief Min Aung Hlaing. Wang Yi seemingly compelled  the junta chief to avoid harming the Chinese interested projects in Myanmar.

Currently, there is no fighting in Kyaukphyu urban area or Maday island. The large international oil tankers continue to operate in the island, where many Chinese projects are erected.

Photograph: Maday island port, a key site for Chinese investment under Kyaukphyu/ Photo by Narinjara