- Web Master
- October 19, 2024
AFP Mandalay, Myanmar
Published: Prothom Alo (Bangladesh), 25 Oct 2024, 22: 21
Weeks ago, residents could hear the sounds of clashes along the road that
leads out of the country's second city.
"We are afraid of the fighting coming here but we have nowhere to
hide," said one man who owns a food shop near the checkpoint and requested
anonymity for security reasons.
"Operation 1027", named for its start date, has ejected the junta
from around 50,000 square kilometres -- an area roughly the size of Bosnia --
according to analysts and an AFP tally.
The spoils include a string of towns along a lucrative trade highway to
northern neighbour China, along with most of western Rakhine state, home to a
proposed Beijing-backed deep-sea port on the Indian Ocean.
Mandalay's capture by the British in 1885 ended the last independent Burmese
kingdom and its loss now would be a stunning blow to the junta.
Fighters from the "Mandalay PDF" -- students, teachers and IT
workers who fled the city years ago to join the struggle against the junta --
are already in Patheingyi, about five kilometres from the city, according to
the group's spokesman Osmond, who uses one name.
"If we can capture Mandalay, we believe that this will make big change
in our revolution," he said by phone from an undisclosed location.
Last month, an unidentified group launched a rocket attack on the city,
damaging several buildings, and last week, the Chinese consulate was hit by an
explosion, drawing a stern protest from Beijing -- a major arms supplier and
ally of the junta.
In the city's bustling, dusty downtown there are few soldiers on the streets
and police rarely venture out from stations barricaded with concrete and
sandbags.
"Mandalay is not well-protected at all," said one former local
politician, who also requested anonymity to talk to the media.
"Where can we go if there is war in Mandalay? We just have to die here."
The sustained success of "Operation 1027" has buoyed the dozens of
PDF groups that sprung up to fight the military, whose coup plunged the country
into more than three years of brutal civil war.
But replicating its advances in the central plains around Mandalay will
prove a challenge, independent Myanmar analyst David Mathieson told AFP.
The terrain is "prime territory" for the junta to press its
advantages in air power and artillery, he said, while fighting in a sprawling,
urban area is a complication.
Whether the ethnic rebel alliance that spearheaded "Operation
1027" would join any assault on the city, which is far from its bases in
the borderlands, remains unclear.
And looming over that question is China.
Beijing maintains ties with the ethnic rebel groups that operate along its
border, which it sees as useful as leverage in its relations with the junta.
Analysts say Beijing gave "Operation 1027" a green light on the
condition it dismantled any online scam compounds located in territory it took
in Shan state.
Such compounds are typically run by Chinese nationals and staffed by people
from China and other countries who were often trafficked and forced to work
swindling their compatriots.
Beijing is now trying to prevent the alliance from making more gains that
could further diminish the junta, said Jason Tower of the United States
Institute for Peace.
Toppling the military is "a clear red line" for China, he told
AFP.
The rebel alliance -- made up of the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National
Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
-- did not respond to AFP requests for comment.
Beijing has closed several of its border crossings that provide revenue to
the rebel groups, and cut internet, water and power supplies to enclaves along
its border.
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is expected to visit China next month, in what
would be his first trip to his most important ally since the coup, and Tower
said that Beijing had made it clear it wanted the military to prevail.
The Mandalay PDF fighters in the plains outside their home city have their
own goals.
"Capturing Mandalay is one of our most strategic military
objectives," said spokesman Osmond.
"But we don't plan to reveal when we will do this operation."