Lu Htet Naing, Narinjara News, 5 February 2025 

Political analyst U Than Soe Naing informed Narinjara News that extensive guerrilla combat might soon break out in the Anyar region (dry zone) and the delta.  

U Than Soe Naing stated, "The Anyar area and the delta will transform into significant zones of guerrilla warfare involving extensive military actions. I think these changes will persist in the upcoming months, emphasizing the advancements of the Spring Revolution in Myanmar and the downfall of the military government."  

During a National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) meeting in Naypyidaw on January 31, Junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing acknowledged that Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) had exploited the nation's political instability to carry out attacks under the guise of ethnic and political reasons. 

The Arakan Army (AA) teamed up with the People's Defense Forces (PDF) to carry out assaults along the borders of Magway Region–Arakan State, Bago Region–Arakan State, and Ayeyarwady Region–Arakan State, acknowledged junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing at the NDSC meeting.  

He also noted that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Kachin State, in cooperation with the PDFs, launched attacks in the China-Myanmar border region, Bhamo area, upper Sagaing Region, and Indaw area. Additionally, he mentioned that the Karen National Union (KNU) in Karen State, together with PDFs, conducted attacks in the Kataiti area, Mepali area, Anankwin area, and Kawkareik area. Furthermore, he mentioned that the Chin National Front (CNF) in Chin State, alongside PDFs, commenced attacks in the townships of Mindat, Kanpetlet, and Falam. 

U Than Soe Naing stated, "He is currently in a situation where he has to acknowledge his loss. Each state has an occupancy rate of 70 to 90 percent. Two Regional Military Commands have been lost, and two more are encircled. From a military standpoint, he is facing defeat."  

Junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated during the NDSC meeting that efforts to resolve armed conflicts and attain peace will persist.  

"On September 26, 2024, we issued an invitation to address political problems through political avenues after the nation suffered the loss of human resources, infrastructure, and numerous lives. Free and fair elections can only take place once the armed conflicts in the pertinent area cease," Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing emphasized that a political resolution can solely be attained through communication and that the opportunity for peace negotiations is still available.  

In this context, U Than Soe Naing mentioned, "Ethnic armed groups are working with the PDF and engaging in active combat. In this context, there might be deceptive dialogues on one end, while on the opposite side, as a component of the Spring Revolution, assaults persist daily, and the junta endures ongoing military defeats.” 

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing indicated that since its establishment, the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Coordination Committee (NSPCC) has conducted 114 peace discussions with seven signatories of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and six groups that have not signed.  

Nonetheless, influential ethnic armed factions, including the KNU, have declared that the NCA is ineffective now and that they will stop following it.