Narinjara News, January 13, 2025 

Political and military analysts anticipate that the Arakan Army (AA) campaign is expected to intensify as the junta persists with its airstrikes on civilian targets in Arakan State. 

Captain Zin Yaw, a participant in the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), asserts that the junta's continual airstrikes might prompt the AA to broaden its military influence beyond the Ayeyarwady Region and into central Myanmar. 

"These steps will further expand the military scenario. If the AA infiltrates the central area via Magway and Sagaing, the junta will face humiliation. The military scenario is set to further intensify. Although the junta seeks to create fear, the Arakan Army and the Arakan people will instead gain strength and anger, leading to increased conflict,” he stated. 

Captain Zin Yaw further stressed that the junta's airstrikes would not scare the AA but would actually strengthen it. 

"The junta is carrying out airstrikes in Arakan daily. I don't think this will intimidate the Arakan Army; rather, it will increase animosity and empower it, enabling it to recover territories that were once under the ancient Arakan kings," he stated. 

A spokesperson for the AA, U Khaing Thukha, indicated that the ongoing offensives by the Arakan Army (AA) are contingent on the junta's responses. 

"Our stance remains the same, as I indicated before. The ongoing offensive depends on the junta's reaction. We issued a statement, yet the junta persists in conducting airstrikes on civilian zones in Arakan State, which distinctly shows their position," he stated. 

Political analyst U Than Soe Naing stated that the junta's continuous airstrikes in Arakan will not hinder the AA’s military objectives. 

“The junta appears resolute in defeating the AA, aggressively advancing its military objectives while engaging in substantial political maneuvering. This is the reason the Arakan area, particularly the Arakan community, faces oppression and is enduring extensive airstrikes. As the AA's military aims broaden, the situation is expected to deteriorate," he stated.

U Than Soe Naing further mentioned that AA officials ought to prioritize increasing public awareness of air defense. 

The Arakan Army (AA) has effectively taken control of every junta camp situated along three mountain passes linking Arakan State to the rest of Myanmar. In certain areas, the AA has breached the Arakan State boundary and moved into regions close to the Arakan Mountains, with reports of continued clashes from local military sources. 

At present, just three towns are still under the control of the junta in Arakan State: Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung, with both factions staying in a state of military preparedness.

In Pathein Township, Ayeyarwady Region, residents of Shwe Thaung Yan state that the AA and its allies are positioned close to the town, while junta troops are pushing back after retreating from village to village. 

According to local sources, clashes continue in Ngathainggyaung, Yegyi, and Thabaung townships at the border of the Arakan Mountains as the junta gears up for a large-scale defense in Pathein. 

"To the best of our knowledge, Pathein is undergoing significant fortification, and its defenses are being reinforced. The junta is concentrating more on enhancing defenses in Pathein compared to other towns associated with the Arakan Mountains," a military source in the region stated.

The junta is additionally strengthening its forces on the Taungup-Padaung route to safeguard arms factories situated along the west shore of the Ayeyarwady River after the collapse of the Taung Paw Gyi base. 

This reinforcement is being conducted with recruits who have finished 45 days of military training. 

As the military situation evolves, the junta is conducting a series of airstrikes on civilian neighborhoods and areas in Arakan State. 

The airstrikes have resulted in the deaths of about 40 individuals in Kyauk Ni Maw village in Ramree and roughly 10 in Kyauktaw Town. 

The Arakan Army (AA) has denounced the junta’s airstrikes on civilian sites, labeling them a cowardly act and a war crime.