Lu Htet Naing, Narinjara News, 30September 2024

Myanmar political analysts suggest thatIndia may recognize the Arakan Army (AA) to protect its interest in Myanmar andthe federal government in New Delhi is likely to continue negotiations.

Narinjara News reached out to somepolitical analysts for their insight on New Delhi’s invitation to the armedopposition forces, including the AA, who have been opposing the Myanmarmilitary junta, to participate in talks.

U Than Soe Naing, a Myanmar politicalanalyst, stated, "If India aims to safeguard its interest, we arewitnessing a situation where it will likely continue to negotiate and makeadjustments with the AA, which now controls much of the Arakan region."

He also noted that New Delhi mustinevitably recognize the AA victories.

“The inevitable recognition of the AAvictories should be a key consideration. But not only the AA, but other leadersof the Spring Revolution, including the National Unity Government (NUG), werealso invited to share their experiences and discuss the federal democracy thatthe people of Myanmar desire. This can be seen as a significant politicaladvancement. I believe it will lead to a beneficial discussion for our countryas well,” he added.

India still supplies weapons to themilitary junta. Moreover, as a powerful democracy in the Asian region, Indiaremains completely silent on the junta's human rights violations.

During February 1998 New Delhi lured sixleaders, including the Arakanese revolutionary general Khaing Yarzar to Indiaand then cold-bloodedly murdered them in their own soil.

The groups invited by India include ethnicarmed organizations from the bordering Chin, Arakan, and Kachin States, as wellas the NUG, a parallel government of Myanmar.

Narinjara News also spoke with veteranArakanese politician U Pe Than about the invitation, where he emphasized theimportance of New Delhi’s relationship with the United League of Arakan/ArakanArmy (ULA/AA).

"The relationship with New Delhi iscrucial for the ULA/AA, because it is now a revolutionary government, not justan organization. There are many important matters, such as the Kaladan project,that they need to discuss with New Delhi. The ULA/AA's role in the Kaladanproject remains significant, and the project cannot succeed without theirsupport. India has also expressed its commitment to make the Kaladan project asuccess and plans to sell electricity as part of that initiative," headded.

U Pe Than also noted that the ULA/AA isdesignated as a terrorist organization by the junta, and hence New Delhi’sinvitation should be welcomed.

"India has invited four groups,including the NUG and AA, to discuss federalism. This indicates that theyrecognize the resistance forces as partners. The ULA/AA is even designated as aterrorist organization, yet India extended this invitation. Given the localsituation, I believe they want to discuss the type of federal system we aspireto, and explore ways to stabilize the region. We see this as a promisingdevelopment. Since this is the first time the resistance forces are invited,relations with India are likely to improve further. The junta will not bepleased with this. For the resistance forces, this represents a uniqueopportunity, and I think New Delhi’s invitation should be welcomed," headded.

The ethnic armed organizations invited byIndia include the AA, which controls significant areas in Arakan State, as wellas the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), one of Myanmar's powerful armed groups.

The seminar is scheduled for  November this yearin New Delhi, which is sponsored by the Indian government.

Arakanese nationalists caution that theULA needs to learn from the assassination of past Arakanese revolutionaryleaders in its dealings with New Delhi and should continue their relation withIndia with necessary cautions.