Kyaing Hein Lin, Narinjara News, 4 September 2024

As the military junta prepares for  conducting apopulation and household census across Myanmar, the political analysts believethat it is unlikely to happen in Arakan State.

The junta, which took power illegally in 2021,announced its plan to hold elections in November 2025 as part of theirstrategies of political transition.

Despite the ongoing conflict almost across thecountry, the junta planned to conduct the census from 1 to 15 October  asa preliminary initiative for polls.

U Pe Than, a political analyst, noted that due to thejunta's significant territorial losses in Arakan State, it is unlikely thatsuch a census will be conducted in the region.

"Who will conduct the census in Arakan State andwhich social organization will be involved? Most townships currently lackpersonnel and those present in their places cannot leave the town. The juntaforces and police personnel become unable to provide security to them. Soconducting a census enumeration in the Arakan region is impossible," headded.

However, he agreed that the junta-controlled Arakanesetownships like Sittwe, Maungdaw, Ann, Kyaukphyu, Gwa, Taungup and Manaung maygo for the census.

Moreover, the junta's administration remains effectiveonly in urban areas of these townships. They are struggling in rural regions ofArakan State to make the census possible.

“The census enumeration needs support from variousdepartments. Security becomes the priority. Now the actual population in urbanareas is less than what it should have been. It will only create an illusionthat the census is being conducted in Arakan State,” asserted U Pe Than.

According to the People's Spring, over  70 ofMyanmar's 330 townships have gone to the control of the resistance forces.

Another political analyst, who wanted anonymity, alsoexpressed doubt that the junta would be able to conduct the census in all areasof Myanmar as many towns have lost communication networks due to the ongoingfighting.

"Where will they conduct the census enumeration?The condition for carrying out such an activity is very challenging. Even inYangon, it's still uncertain whether the census enumeration can becompleted," he added.

Junta chief senior general Min Aung Hlaing stated thatthe national elections will be held only after the countrywide census iscompleted.

In Myanmar, a nationwide census is usually conductedin a decade. The last census  was conducted from 30 March to 10 April2014.

Based on data from the 2014 Myanmar population andhousing census, the junta’s immigration & population ministry released anestimated population count for Myanmar on 2 October last year.

The report indicated that Myanmar's estimatedpopulation is 56.2 million with 3.4 million residing in Arakan State. 

Of those 3.4 million people in Arakan State, 1.6million are men and 1.8 million are women.

Photograph: A view of the census enumeration processin Arakan State during 2014