I understand well the attitude of Rakhine people towards AAand its attitude towards thepeople: Political analyst Dr Hla Kyaw Zaw

Narinjara News (Interview), 17 January 2024

The recent Rakhine conflicts, began on 13 November 2023, have seen the Arakan Army (AA) securing control overmany Rakhine areas, including thePaletwa region (of Chin State). Currently, the junta forces are facing regular defeats, resulting insignificant losses. Amid this complexscenario, a cease-fire agreement was brokered under the Chinese pressure. In the midst of these military,political, and diplomatic intricacies, what direction might the militarysituation in Rakhine take?Narinjara News reporterinterviewed political analyst DrHla Kyaw Zaw, known for her deep understanding on Myanmar affairs. The excerpts remain-

Q - China's pressure led to a temporary ceasefire in northern Shan State. How do you thinkthis will affect the military situation in Rakhine State?
A - The ceasefire discussions in China between the militaryjunta and the ThreeBrotherhood Alliance representatives exclusively concerned the northern region and do notnecessarily extended to Rakhine State. No commitments have been made by any party regarding Rakhine, including the AA. Whilethe Three Brotherhood Alliance has indeed made promises, these commitments specifically apply tothe northern Shan State. It is anticipated that Rakhine will face no issues and remain free to any activities.

Q - AA is taking control of the junta's tactical operationcommand baseand military bases in Rakhine, one by one. Additionally, divisional commanders innorthern Shan State are being arrested and
many are surrendering. What's your take on the junta's military situation in light ofthese events?
A - In my view, the junta forces are falling apart, with a notable impact on their  morale. Theinternet videos indicate that, following the capture of hill-based camps in northern Shan State, they had a
significant amount of weapons and ammunition. However, despitehaving these weapons, thesurrender of 6 brigadier generals indicates that their army personnel  are likely in a difficult situation.Given the
current pace, it would be beneficial if northern Shan Statecould persistin its efforts, completing what is necessary to transform into a liberated region.

Q - The Three Brotherhood Alliance has captured nearly 30 towns, including Rakhine, alongwith several military camps. Could the military junta potentially strike these locationsagain? Also, what
preparations might be necessary for the ethnic revolutionaryforces to maintain controlover these captured towns in the long run?
A - Yes. Previously, during revolutions, we often captured townsbut couldn't maintaincontrol for a long time. At that time, it was only the Burma Communist Party (BCP). Now, with theunion of various ethnic groups and the Bamar people from the mainland, I think we have a better chance ofcapturing and keeping towns under control. It's more than just the ArakanArmy (AA) now. The Northern Alliance offers protection and we can receive supplies fromallies. This means once we capture a place, we are more equipped to manage it. The AA has valuable experience inareas like Wa, KIA's Laiza, and Mongla, and understands how to govern locally. With the juntaforces not as powerful as they used to be, the AA and other ethnic groups arelikely capableof maintaining control over the towns successfully.

Q - There are different opinions on whether Rakhine mightsecede, especially withinthe Bamar community. What is your thought over the matter?
A - To my knowledge, the AA is seeking a confederation, notsecession. Also,observing the Three Brotherhood Alliance's actions, it seems the AA realizes thatliberation cannot be achieved alone. The Three Brotherhood Alliance has committed to liberate the entirecountry, vowing to stand with thepeople until they are free from the military dictatorship. I believe they are unlikely tobreak this commitment.

Q - The people in Rakhine strongly support the AA. What is your perspective on thesubstantial public support for a revolutionary armed group? Additionally, how do you view therobust support from the
people of Rakhine?
A - I've witnessed that the AA receives significant support from the Rakhine people. When Ivisited places like Ruili and Zhang Feng, I saw that people from Rakhine State, even young ones,worked really hard. They would save a little money for themselves and donate most of it to the AA. That's why I understand the AAwell. The AA leaders also recognize the Rakhine people's generosity. Rakhine State is rich in natural resources, butit's still very poor, which must be tough for the locals. Some Rakhine people might have even moved to theborder. Those working at theborder have hard lives, taking jobs that the Chinese don't want. They work hard and give theirearnings to support the AA. I've seen this myself. So, I understand well theattitudes of both theRakhine people towards the AA and its attitude towards the people. You really needto love your country and people to understand this.

Q - Could you share your last review of the military situationin Rakhine?
A - The conflict is expected to extend throughout Myanmar. The military junta's only method is tobrutally kill the people. They will persist in firing artillery shells and conducting airstrikes. Our people must navigate through a very difficult period in theirstruggle fortheir own revolution. It's unavoidable. Therefore, there will be considerable sacrifices,and the war is anticipated to expand further. (END)