“It is very important what stepsChina will take after the failed talk? What will China do again? Will China bequiet?” U Ye Tun, ex-lower house representative of Hsipaw Township from WhiteTiger Party

The military council’sNational Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) held a talkwith the Three Brotherhood Alliance, namely the Myanmar National DemocraticAlliance Army (MNDAA)-Kokang, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and theArakan Army (AA) in Mongla in the eastern Shan State in early June.

Due to the Chinese government’s pressure, the leaders ofboth sides were scheduled to hold talks from 1 to 3 June, but the talks endedon the second day. Fighting took place between the MNDAA-Kokang and themilitary council in the area where Kokang army is active in northern Shan Statewhen the talk was going on.

The Narinjara interviewed ex-Lower House MP U Ye Tun, who isproficient in political, military and Chinese affairs, about why did the Monglatalk fail, will the Chinese government’s mediation in Myanmar’s internalconflict go ahead and will the current armed conflict continue. U Ye Tun is anex-lower house representative of Hsipaw Township, from the Shan NationalitiesDemocratic Party (SNDP) (or) White Tiger party.

Q:In early June, it was learned that the talk between the military council andthe Three Brotherhood Alliance-MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA in Mongla endedwithout any good result. Then, fighting is taking place in northern Shan State.Can you give a comment on this situation?

A: According to the news on social media, the MNDAA beganattacking the army. It is not a strange thing. Before this talk, in aninterview, the TNLA said that China put pressure on it to hold talks with theState Administration Council (SAC). The TNLA doesn’t seem to hold the talk. Ithas to inevitably attend the talk. So, the meeting ended without taking toomuch. The TNLA’s primary stance is that no need to hold talk and it has nodesire to hold the talk. It is expected that it shall continue to fight.

Q: The United States hasenacted the Burma Act for Myanmar’s Spring Revolution to provide non-lethalaid. China is concerned that it may spread to the Ethnic Armed Organizations(EAOs). China has made a pre-emptive attempt. The main thing is China doesn’twant the National Unity Government (NUG) and the EAOs to liaise with it. Doesthe talk turn sour due to it?

A: According to the news I have heard, they haven’t saidanything about it yet. That is what the SAC will say. The other side (ThreeBrotherhood Alliance) discussed the matters on the release of detained members,the removal of the AA from the list of unlawful associations and providing aidto the storm-hit people in cooperation with the SAC. The SAC aim is to startadvancing the democratic federal system. The Three Brotherhood Alliance did notrespond to the SAC’s discussions. The talk ended on the second day, saying thatthey would have to consult again. I see it as a situation where there is no practicaldemand or discussion on the part of the SAC. The talks stopped without anyagreement.

Q: Fighting takes placein northern Shan State while the talk is going on. Do you think that fightingwill occur in the areas where the TNLA and the AA are active as the meeting isattended by all members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance?

A: Fighting may take place in northern Shan State where theTNLA and the MNDAA are active. I think the AA will not carry out militaryactivities as the AA is grappling with rehabilitation works in storm-hit ArakanState. The resumed fighting may make the people more difficult. I think the SACdoesn’t want to open the new military front. It is convenient for the SAC topay attention to the current military fronts. What I want to say is thatfighting shall not resume in Arakan State, I think.

Q: What can we furtherexpect for peace as the Mongla talk did not produce a good result? To whatextent can we expect peace?

A: The current conflict is between the SAC and the EAOswhich formed with the NUG and the PDF. For instance, the UWSA, the SSA and theRCSS are not included in the conflict. They are fighting against the army bydesignating 2023 as a decisive year. The NUG and the PDF are not in a positionto hold a talk even if the army extends an olive branch to them. Both sides donot accept it. The SAC has designated the NUG and the PDFs as the terroristorganizations. The SAC will hold talks with the EAOs. The NUG and the PDF alsohave declared the SAC as the terrorist military council. They have already saidthey would not hold talks with the SAC. At present, the NUG assumes that it hasgot the upper hand. I think the NUG will not hold talks even if the SAC changesits stance. In my view, the armed conflict remains in Myanmar.

Q: To what extent can wefurther expect from the Chinese government which cannot produce the good resultfrom the Mongla talk? May I know your view as most of the people in Myanmar areengaging in anti-China movements?

A: China has been keeping a watchful eye on Myanmar’sinternal affairs. China is constantly and anxiously monitoring the US’s weaponassistance to Myanmar. China has agreed to and supported ASEAN’s five-pointconsensus since the approval of consensus. However, China shows opposition tothe arms assistance by foreign countries. The Northern Alliance is forced tohold this discussion as a pre-emptive attempt. China will be disappointed withthe failed talk. China will not be very worried if weapons are available on theblack market based on the foreign intervention. China will be very careful if aforeign country provides weapons. In particular, China is concerned about theUS’s influence on Myanmar. It is very important what steps China will takeafter the failed talk? What will China do again? Will China be quiet?” In thepast, Deng Xiaoping urged the Burmese Community Party (BCP) and the U Ne WinAdministration. The dialogue materialized. The BCP inevitably held a dialoguealthough it defied Deng Xiaoping. Then, Deng Xiaoping neglected the BCP. The prolongedrelationship between Deng Xiaoping and the BCP turned sour until the collapseof the BCP as the BCP did not listen to him and accept his political view. Therelationship was not good. Myanmar had such a history.

Q: Is there anything toadd about the Mongla talk?

A: At present, both sides think that they have militaryadvantages. According to the statements and words from both sides, they areconducting operations by changing their military tactics based on the situation.Now, efforts for territorial control by marching and capturing the enemyoutposts by the ground forces no longer work. The army conducts surpriseairstrikes and relies on the air force for the movement of troops. It alsodepends on how much they can use these forces sufficiently. At a time when bothsides think that they get the upper hand, neither side wants demands for peacetalks.