- Web Master
- October 05, 2024
Reuters, bdnews24.com (Bangladesh), Published: 25 October 2024
When an alliance led by three rebel armies seized swathes of territory near
Myanmar's border with China from the military junta last October, Beijing
looked the other way.
A year on, rebel forces have ground down the junta, pushing the military out
of vital borderlands and making inroads into the contested heart of Myanmar.
In response, China has sealed the border and shut off key imports to
territory under rebel control, said a rebel leader and five border-area
residents, a move analysts say aims to dissuade the alliance from further
advances, including attacking the cultural capital of Mandalay.
After initially backing the Three Brotherhood Alliance to crack down on
rampant border crime going unchecked by the junta, Beijing is increasingly
alarmed at the rapid degeneration of the military, which it still sees as a
guarantor of stability in its neighbour, said two analysts who track
Myanmar-China relations. China is also anxious about the ascendancy of rebel
groups that have been helping the alliance and are also tied to the US-backed
parallel National Unity Government, one of them said.
The previously unreported details of how Beijing is pressuring rebel forces,
including by blocking imports - leading at least one group to withdraw from the
fight - were described to Reuters by nine people with knowledge of the
conflict.
One inflection point came in August, when the alliance took the northeastern
town of Lashio, marking the first seizure of a regional military command in
Myanmar's history.
The town of about 130,000 fell to the rebels twice as quickly as they had
expected, said Ni Ni Kyaw, secretary of a communist resistance group fighting
in support of Operation 1027, as the alliance-led offensive is known.
Myanmar's junta said in a statement responding to Reuters' questions that it
cooperates with Beijing to ensure stability and rule of law along the frontier,
and will not accept the demands of "armed terrorists," as it calls
the rebels.
"We will continue to solve the situation using political methods,"
it said.
China's foreign ministry told Reuters it "resolutely opposes the
emergence of chaos and war in Myanmar" and urges involved parties to
"jointly push for a soft landing of the situation" near the border.
The Chinese consulate in Mandalay was partially damaged by a blast last week,
though there were no casualties.
Some rebel groups hope to build on the recent momentum and chart a course
south to Mandalay, two rebel leaders and analysts said. From there, the capital
of Naypyidaw is a mere 300km (190 miles) away.
Beijing would likely oppose such a move, said international security expert
Zhu Jiangming, who has written about the border situation for Chinese state
media.
"Mandalay is the second largest city in Myanmar, equivalent to
Shanghai," he said, adding that the fall of Mandalay would be a turning
point in the conflict that Beijing would try to prevent.
'DIFFICULT SITUATION'
Operation 1027, named after the date when fighting commenced last year,
started at a time when crime ensnarling Chinese victims was taking place near
the border. That prompted Beijing not to object when the Three Brotherhood
Alliance started routing the junta.
The alliance is composed of three groups - including the ethnic Chinese
Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) - over which Beijing has
influence but not direct control.
But China opposes the collapse of the junta, which ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's
civilian government in a 2021 coup. It fears perpetual turmoil along its
1,250-mile border with Myanmar would jeopardise investments and trade, analysts say.
Cracking down on crime should not eclipse the bigger picture, Zheng Gang of
CITIC Reform and Development Research Foundation, a division of a Chinese
state-owned enterprise developing a port in Myanmar, wrote in a March analysis.
He said greater unrest in Myanmar could benefit China’s rivals, including
the US and Japan, whom he said were viewed favourably by influential groups
like the NUG.
Beijing previously flexed its muscles when it negotiated a ceasefire between
some ethnic militias and the junta in January. But fighting later continued and
by mid August, Lashio had fallen.
Shortly after Lashio's collapse, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met junta
leader Min Aung Hlaing in Myanmar. Wang told him Beijing "opposes chaos
and conflicts" and urged him to "safeguard Chinese personnel and
projects," according to a Chinese government readout. China's military
held joint-fire exercises on the border later that month.
Pressure on the Three Brotherhood Alliance followed. China closed border
gates, cutting off supplies to territory newly under MNDAA control, according
to Maung Saungkha, leader of another army which supported the alliance in the
fighting, as well as five residents.
Even medical supplies like children's vaccines have not been getting
through, leaving the rebels running a public health system amid conflict
"in a very difficult situation", said Maung Saungkha.
The tightened border controls have slowed the flow of arms and ammunition to
resistance groups, he said, adding that his forces would try to seize more
ammunition from defeated junta troops.
In September, the MNDAA, which has longstanding ties with China, declared it
would not work with allies to expand territory, nor engage with or cooperate
with “foreign nations” that opposed China or Myanmar. It also announced it was
ready for a ceasefire under China’s guidance, though it remains part of the
alliance.
Late that month, the junta invited rebel forces to peace talks. The proposal
was swiftly rejected by rebel leaders like Maung Saungkha, who said China's
role in backing such negotiations could pave the way for a sham election.
A senior National Unity Government official, who spoke on condition of
anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss relations with Beijing,
said China was trying to create divisions among anti-junta forces. Beijing has
urged some groups to stop fighting the military and cease cooperating with the
NUG, said the official, without providing evidence.
The NUG has a loose alliance with some rebel groups, while others sit within
its chain of command.
An assault on Mandalay would be difficult for the Three Brotherhood Alliance
to engage in while maintaining ties with China, said Jason Tower, an analyst
with the Washington-based US Institute of Peace. He added that it would be
risky for the rebels to try and take Mandalay without alliance backing.
Soe Thuya Zaw, a commander of the Mandalay People's Defence Forces, which
reports to the NUG, said China’s influence was a “reality," but that
groups like his farther from the border could lead in the fight for Mandalay.
“We must unite, we must prepare, and we must do our training to overcome the pressure from China,” he said.
INSTABILITY AT THE TOP
Beijing's latest intervention came after seeing how quickly junta forces
disintegrated in Lashio.
"China has now become even more proactive and shifted its posture quite
remarkably," said Tower.
Rebels believed the junta would use the temporary halt in combat forced by
China to prepare a strong defence there, said Soe Thuya Zaw. Instead, the
military struggled to put up a fight when conflict resumed, with its high
command losing communication with senior officers at regional headquarters.
There has also been instability at the top.
Since the 2021 coup, Min Aung Hlaing has rotated his regional military
commanders at a much faster rate. Between June 2017 and the Feb. 2021 coup, the
14 regional military commands that form the bedrock of the general's hold over
Myanmar saw 36 people serve as commanders, according to Security Force Monitor,
a research group at Columbia University.
In the same 44-month period after the coup, there were 49 commanders, an
increase of 36%.
Many of the rotations - the details of which have not been previously
reported - occurred in the area abutting China where the military has lost
significant ground.
"According to the latest data available, the majority of currently
serving regional military commanders have never commanded a regional military
command before," said Tony Wilson, the research group's director.
The quick-fire rotation of commanders reflected a bid by Min Aung Hlaing to
assert greater control over the military and forestall dissent, said analyst Ye
Myo Hein. The general has come under unprecedented pressure and criticism –
even from loyalists – for the defeats over the past year.
During the rebel offensive, Min Aung Hlaing sacked Lashio's regional
commander for insubordination after an argument, according to analyst Min Zaw
Oo, who has interacted with junta officials, and Ye Myo Hein.
The replacement was not able to enter Lashio during the fighting, they said,
nor were reinforcements from other areas.
"You don't change a commander in a crisis just for
insubordination," Min Zaw Oo said.