Animesh PaulPublished: April 30, 2023

DhakaTribune (Opinion)

It has been 14 years since the insurgent group Arakan Army(AA) took control of Myanmar's Rakhine region. The armed group claims to befighting for the people of Rakhine. The National Unity Government of Myanmar(NUG) recently congratulated the group on its 14th anniversary. Other armedgroups and political parties involved in the anti-junta fight alsocongratulated the AA.

Analysts also say that the Arakan Army is doing well in thefight against the junta. However, Myanmar's internal affairs have left room towonder whether the repatriation of the more than 1 million Rohingya inBangladesh will have any impact. Especially after the NUG recognized theRohingya as an ethnic group in Myanmar, the matter deserves to be taken moreseriously.

Before discussing the internal crisis in Myanmar, it isnecessary to highlight the global issues or influences that may affect Rohingyarepatriation. Some of the biggest influencers on Rohingya repatriation areChina, India, the US, and the UN. Beyond this, there is the influence of ASEANas a regional organization.

China has the biggest influence in Myanmar. The country hasties to both junta and anti-junta governments. China also has huge investmentsin the country. China has more influence on the junta government than any othercountry or organization in the world. China has taken several steps torepatriate the Rohingya. The first two rounds of initiatives failed. Still,China is moving forward with a third round, but its effect remains to be seen.

The most significant move made by China on the Rohingyaissue is that the country has said that the issue of Rohingya repatriationshould be viewed as a bilateral issue between the two countries rather than aninternational forum. 

China's position here is clear. The country wants theRohingya issue to be resolved through direct talks between Bangladesh andMyanmar. Simply put, China wants to establish its influence in both Bangladeshand Myanmar.

The US government passed the “Burma Act” to aid Myanmar'santi-junta government. Direct support to the NUG, the People's Defense Force(PDF), and ethnic armed organizations (EAOS) has been mentioned. 

The Arakan Army belongs to EAOS. So, US aid will also reachthe Arakan Army. As a result, fighting in the Rakhine region between the juntagovernment and the Arakan Army could intensify.

Another concern is that if the junta forces increase the useof force in Rakhine while suppressing the Arakan Army, it may pose a threat toBangladesh. Because Myanmar has a 300-kilometer border with Bangladesh -- mostof which are remote, hilly areas -- the fighting between the Junta Army and theArakan Army in these areas could destabilize the mountainous region ofBangladesh. 

However, during a visit to Dhaka last February, the top USdiplomat assured Bangladesh that the aid they will provide to Myanmar will notaffect Bangladesh. But the reality is that Rakhine's unrest means therepatriation of the Rohingya is uncertain.

The European Union (EU) has followed the same path as theUnited States. They have imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals and 18institutions associated with the junta government in Myanmar. All in all, theUS and EU positions will turn Myanmar's junta government towards China and, atthe same time, Russia. 

An example of which we have already found. Myanmar is buyingweapons from Russia, including several warplanes, indicating Russia's closeties with Myanmar. And the Western world is already engaged in a “proxy war”with Russia in Ukraine. Western intelligence assessments suggest that this warwill not yield any results this year.

In such a situation, the Western world, led by the UnitedStates, will take steps around the world to pressure Russia -- including inMyanmar. The more the West puts the sword on the junta, the closer Myanmar andRussia will be, which will create a dialectical position for Bangladesh. Inparticular, Bangladesh's foreign policy of “friendship with all, not enmitywith others” will come under some pressure here due to the dynamic nature ofglobal geopolitics.

Apart from this, ASEAN could have played an effective rolein exerting pressure on Myanmar. Myanmar was not invited to the alliance'slatest summit. Consensus was reached to resolve the ongoing violent powerstruggle between the junta and the NUG. But the Rohingya crisis was notspecifically mentioned. 

A summit statement described the Rohingya as "displacedpeople of Rakhine" and emphasized the implementation of Myanmar'sbilateral agreement with Bangladesh to begin the repatriation process. But thecoalition could not exert much pressure on Myanmar in this regard.

The rise of the Arakan Army can have both positive andnegative results for Bangladesh. On the positive side, since the National UnityGovernment of Myanmar recognizes the Rohingya as an ethnic group ofMyanmar. 

If the Arakan Army wins over the junta forces in Rakhine andthe NUG comes to power in Myanmar, the repatriation of the Rohingya to Myanmarmay be easier. But the victory of the Arakan Army and the coming to power ofthe NUG depend on many ifs and buts. There is no other possibility of thishappening so quickly in the current global-political context.

On the negative side, if the NUG and the armed wing of otherethnic groups continue to fight against the junta government with the supportof the Western world, the fight is bound to be prolonged. Because the juntagovernment will definitely not give up, which will block the repatriation ofRohingya from Bangladesh in the long run,

Another thing to note here is how Bangladesh, China, andIndia are treating the Arakan Army. According to an article in the Asia Times,the relationship between the Arakan Army and Bangladesh, China, and India ismore important than that between the countries of the Western world. 

If somehow the Arakan Army prevails over the junta forces inRakhine and the National Unity Government is installed in the central power ofMyanmar, Bangladesh must rethink. Because then the political wing of the ArakanArmy will be in the policy-making role.

One more thing to consider: The NUG is mainly made up ofAung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) and other pro-democracyparties. The Arakan Army has a bitter past with the NLD government. 

The NLD has simply rejected the political, economic, andsocial demands of the Arakan Army while in power. As a result, it is difficultto imagine that the Arakan Army will so easily forget the past and forgive theNational Unity Government and trust them.

It is clear that the rise or advance of the Arakan Army inMyanmar will create a diplomatically complicated situation for Bangladesh.Because the rise or fall of this armed organization will affect therepatriation of the Rohingya. Now it remains to be seen how Bangladesh willdeal with the upcoming situation.

Animesh Paul is a Bangladeshi writer, translator, andnon-resident fellow at the National University of Singapore.

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