"Russia provides arms and diplomatic support toMyanmar's military junta, however, the war in Ukraine and Moscow'sinternational isolation mean the partnership remains limited"

Alena Zhabina,Deutsche Welle/ Dhaka Tribune

February 9, 2023 3:42 PM

As Myanmar this month marks twoyears since the country's democratically elected government was overthrown in amilitary coup, Russia remains a key supporter of Myanmar's ruling junta, bothdiplomatically and materially.

Myanmar did not join in theinternational condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February, andMoscow has consistently blocked UN Security Council resolutions condemningMyanmar's coup.

Min Aung Hlaing, the leader ofthe Southeast Asian nation's military — called the Tatmadaw — is seekingdomestic and international legitimacy. Hlaing has visited Russia three timessince the coup. 

In September 2022, RussianPresident Vladimir Putin met Hlaing on the sidelines of the Eastern EconomicForum. 

"Russia is not proactive,but rather reactive" when it comes to its ties with Myanmar, said AlexeyKirichenko, assistant professor at the Moscow State University. "This is alongstanding relationship that has been evolving for at least twenty years. Itis not a desperate attempt to find a partner, but a situation in which bothsides have something to offer to each other."

Russian arms supplying Myanmar's civil war

Russia does not have substantialinvestments in Myanmar and cannot compete with China economically. However,Moscow is a major supplier of arms to Myanmar's military.

Russia supplies the junta withPantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile systems, Orlan-10E surveillance drones, radarequipment, as well as M-17 and Mi-35 helicopters, Su-30 fighter jets, andanti-aircraft missile systems. 

The Moscow Times has reportedthat Russia sold Myanmar $14.7 million (€13.6 million) worth of radar equipmentin February 2021 and $96 million worth of so-called "hidden" goodsthree months prior. 

Russian weapons are deployed inthe junta's fight against bands of resistance fighters, with Mi-35 helicoptersand Yak-130 combat training aircraft particularly valued for defending militaryoutposts.  

The Tatmadaw is also seeking tomodernize its forces with anti-drone systems that will likely be ordered fromRussia. The money from these arms sales will also contribute to the Russianbudget for the war in Ukraine. 

Ukraine war threatens supply

As Russia's military has wagedwar in Ukraine for almost a year, it is not clear how the situation willevolve.  

Importers of Russian arms havereasonable concerns that the contracts for arms supplies won't be fulfilled.According to a report by the Ukrainian military, Russia has already suspended acontract for supplying Ka-32 helicopters to Serbia and postponed another arms shipmentto Algeria. 

In trying to sap Russia fromsources of funding, the US and the EU have imposed a ban on the export ofdual-use goods to Russia.  

These include, for instance,vehicle parts. Without them, Russia will find it hard to produce new arms forexport. Last year, India already canceled a contract for the Ka-31 helicopter,MiG-29 fighter jets, and Mi-17 helicopters because Russia could not purchasehigh-tech production materials from European markets. 

"Russian arms play animportant role in Myanmar's civil war. However, a temporary pause in Russia'sdeliveries will not directly influence it," said Michal Lubina from theJagiellonian University in Poland.

"Russia has already providedenough arms to the Burmese military, but they have not crushed their opponentsyet and the question is whether they will. It is more about the will of theresistance," the political analyst added. 

Myanmar's complicated ties with China

China is the top supplier ofweapons to Myanmar, but the complicated history between the two countriescontributes to the lack of trust on both sides.

Many generals now in Myanmar'sjunta remember fighting communist rebels funded by Beijing in the 1970s.Beijing also unofficially supports the Wa, Kokang, and Kachin ethnic armedgroups fighting against the Tatmadaw. 

"The Burmese generals foundthemselves in a conundrum. On the one hand, it is a nationalist government thatresents any foreign interference. On the other hand, they staged the coup andconsequently isolated themselves into a corner where they had to depend onChina. If they have good relations with Russia, they are not at the mercy ofChina," said Lubina. 

However, Beijing is aware thatMyanmar's relations with Russia are not likely to affect Chinese interests.

A Russian foothold in Southeast Asia?

For Russia, there are limitationsto a partnership with Myanmar. Trade is complicated by sanctions anddifficulties with dollar payments. In the energy sector, Myanmar cannot affordto pay enough for Russian oil and gas to make it profitable for Russiancompanies. 

However, by providing support tothe Tatmadaw, which is seeking to cement long-term rule in Myanmar, Russiacould build on its limited presence in Southeast Asia. Currently, Moscowmaintains close ties solely with Vietnam.  

"Should the junta succeed inthe civil war, Russia will be the biggest winner because it was there for themilitary when they were in dire straits,” Lubina said. 

For Myanmar, Russia is aless-threatening partner compared to China. Russia's center of power is faraway and does not pose a threat of invasion or internal meddling.  

"From the theoreticalperspective, conflicts generally help Russia to acquire a bigger influence thanits economic potential allows. In conflicts, a country can dispatch an army anduse diplomacy, which Russia is good at. For Moscow, it is a cheap way ofincreasing Russia's importance in the world and overcoming isolation,"Lubina said.