Maung Sar Ga, Narinjara News, 26 February 2025

Political analysts predict that the imminent peace negotiations between the Arakan Army (AA) and Myanmar’s military junta, set to occur shortly in Kunming with China's involvement, are improbable to succeed, given that the junta persists in attacking civilians in Arakan State.

Analysts anticipate that a ceasefire is improbable due to the junta's ongoing airstrikes and violence, even in the absence of fighting.

A former parliament member from Arakan State remarked that the discussions will not succeed due to the junta's violent actions against innocent individuals.

The junta's activities in Arakan State are becoming increasingly violent, and the airstrikes near Sittwe Township yesterday were especially severe. Considering this, it is evident they have no desire to participate in peace negotiations. Consequently, the likelihood of success is extremely minimal," he stated.

He additionally highlighted that on February 20, the junta dropped over 40 bombs on multiple villages in Pauktaw Township, including the Pauktaw urban region close to Sittwe. The airstrike, conducted with Y-12 planes, resulted in the deaths of four civilians, including two children, and left approximately 20 others injured.

CDM Captain Zin Yaw shared the perspective that the negotiations are probably doomed to fail, referring to AA Commander-in-Chief Major General Tun Mrat Naing's declaration that the AA will continue its struggle, regardless of possible interventions from China or Mars

"They possess the Arakan spirit to resist the junta across the country, preventing any junta forces from entering AA territory. In that spirit, they have declared that they will continue to fight, regardless of any intervention from China or Mars. Therefore, if China instructs them to halt, they will not halt," he informed Narinjara News.

Myanmar political analyst U Than Soe Naing stated that the military junta is not expected to conclude the current conflict.

“For the junta to halt the fighting, it must cease its aggressive actions, including airstrikes and shelling. If it ceases, the junta's military equilibrium will skew further, leading to greater losses for them. As a result, the junta will be unable to secure a ceasefire. Without a ceasefire, the negotiations won't be successful," he stated.

The AA is achieving considerable military progress in Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and surrounding regions of Arakan State, such as Ayeyarwady, Magway, and Bago.

U Than Soe Naing highlighted that even as the AA makes progress, the junta is improbable to cease its assaults, diminishing the chances of successful negotiations.

"Arakan State has two crucial areas: Sittwe and Kyaukphyu. As the AA makes progress in three areas, a ceasefire cannot be achieved. I think achieving success in this dialogue will be more challenging since the junta is unable to halt its violent military assaults," he stated.

On February 16 and 17, the junta forces and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), which is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) that initiated Operation 1027, convened in Kunming, Yunnan Province, China, after the Chinese government intervened.

The TNLA declared on February 19 that although negotiations took place between the two parties, they could not come to a consensus and had to end the talks.

According to Popular News, a media source associated with the junta, the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA), part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), is set to hold another meeting with the junta ten days after the TNLA and the junta convened, on January 31.

The AA and the junta are anticipated to hold a private meeting soon, facilitated by the Chinese government, yet the AA has refrained from issuing any public comments regarding the situation.

Narinjara News contacted AA spokesperson U Khaing Thukha on February 21, but there was no reply by February 25.

The AA launched its town capture operations in Arakan State on November 13, 2023, and has captured 14 townships since then.

Among the other towns—Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung—the AA is also initiating attacks in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu.

Ko Wai Hin Aung, who is helping displaced individuals in Arakan State, mentioned that the AA has not fulfilled its military goals and that reaching a ceasefire and initiating dialogue will be challenging.

“The indications of conflict remain evident. The AA finds it challenging to assert that their military goals have been met. The junta, being the military that governs the whole country, is probably not going to relinquish power,” he stated.

Political analysts foresee that if the discussions between the junta and the AA do not succeed, the conflict in Arakan State will intensify.

"I have no expectations from these discussions. I simply wish to tell the AA to strike the entire state," stated a 50-year-old woman from Sittwe, who is currently seeking refuge in a liberated area of Arakan State.

The junta, with assistance from the Chinese government, conducted four rounds of discussions with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) between December 2023 and May 2024. Nevertheless, these discussions concluded without any notable outcomes.

In December 2024, the junta engaged in additional discussions with the MNDAA, and both parties reached an agreement for a ceasefire.

The junta maintained discussions with the TNLA during the third week of February; however, the two parties could not come to an agreement and opted to continue negotiations.