Jonathan Rao

With the Russia-Ukraine war enters into thethird week, there are no signs of its end. Despite three meetings between Russian and Ukrainian delegation, nosubstantial breakthrough has been made while the bloodshed and human displacementcontinues.  The effect of war has alreadyshown up in the rising commodity prices globally, especially crude oil andwheat and there has been logistic disruptions. A mammoth human crisis leadingto movement of about two million people from Ukraine is putting pressure onneighboring counties.

India, being the biggest democracy in the worldis concerned about things at stake due to Russo-Ukraine war. It is close toboth Russia and Ukraine and as a well wisher believes that any dispute betweentwo sovereign nations should be solved through dialogue rather than war. ThePrime Minister of India has held talks with the heads of the two warringcountries as well as neighbouring countries like Hungary. The Indian responseto the war and subsequent abstention from voting on the UN resolution could beseen as a responsible, neutral and human stand on the issue. India made a pointbefore heads of warring countries to make a human corridor to allow civiliansto move away from the war ravaged regions along with its own students inUkraine.  India also sent a very strongmessage as a responsible nation by facilitating students from neighboringPakistan and Nepal.

India as the fastest growing economy of theworld is concerned about the economic implications of war on the globaleconomy, especially Russia, Ukraine and Europe with whom India has deep ties.  The disruptions in global commodity supplychain, especially crude oil, gas and wheat would not auger well for the nascentglobal economic recovery post COVID-19. India believes that the two warring countrieswhich share a common history and culture since long should open their windowsfor fruitful dialogue.

Unlike others, India has neither takensides nor fallen into the blame game. Although many of the Western countriesare blaming Russia for invasion on a sovereign nation, China in his statementsblamed NATO for provoking the Russia- Ukraine war.  The blame game often reduces the odds to finda solution to a problem.  It is apparentthat underneath the Russia-Ukraine was there is an unmistakable semblance ofwar for hegemony between the super powers refreshing the memory of cold war.

It is necessary to appreciate Russianconcern about the presence of NATO forces in its backyard, but nothing canjustify a war. India appreciates Russia’s concerns, but does not approvedviolent methods to resolve the issues. The efforts of the US and its NATOpartners to contain a super power like Russia, howsoever indirectly, allegingthat it is arrogant, autocratic and irresponsible power would only lead tovicious circle of arguments and counter-arguments and vitiate the situation.

Indications were given by China, Israel andTurkey for intermediating talks between the two warring countries.  But these countries do not elicit as muchtrust as mediators.  While China remainsaligned with Russia, howsoever, tacitly, Turkey is known to have played on bothsides – Russia and the Western allies. For Israel, it will be very hard to prove that it is neutral betweenRussia and the US, as it has been an ally of the later for long, especially inthe context of geo-politics in the Middle East.

The global economy, which was showing “thegreen shoots” of economic recovery after the recessionary impact of the Covid pandemic,has come under fresh threat. India is concerned that the ripple effects of awar of this proportion, if continues, can jeopardize the efforts of the worldto realize the goals of sustainable development.

The raft of sanctions including exclusionfrom SWIFT imposed against Russia would not have economic implications forRussia alone, but on all the countries including those in the EU which haveclose ties with Russia.  Although, thesanctions would significantly disrupt Russia’s ability to receive payments forexports and imports and cripple cross-border financial transactions, the keytrading partners of Russia, including European countries, would also facedifficulties paying for the imports of Russian oil and gas.

The recent address of American Presidentthat people should stand ready to pay the cost for the cause of democracy, asthe global commodity prices including crude oil and wheat have touched newhighs, is not very reassuring towards solving the problem. The inflationarypressure would make life difficult for poor households globally.

Many of the Asian economies including Indiaimport a major part of their energy requirements and a big spike in crudeprices would put immense pressure on their balance of payments. Especially, asthe Indian economy is being treated by as an engine of global economic recoverypost Covid, such a spike would bear heavily on growth and price stability.China also cannot afford to relish as a silent gainer from Russian challenge tothe US and its allies in the game of hegemony. Due to its strategic location,Ukraine is very important for China as a gateway to Europe and the EuropeanUnion, the war would affect supply of minerals and agricultural products bothways. Ukraine is an important hub within the BRI, which Kiev joined in 2017.The Chinese companies working in Ukraine including Beinkew Energy, Xinjiangcommunications Construction Group and Weldatlantic Group would also registerdisruption in operations.

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